A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
